When it says X%, how often does it happen? Perfect calibration sits on the line.
In the absence of contradictory weather data, I am siding with the market's strong conviction that Denver will exceed 65°F.
Without detailed recent consensus data on non-farm payrolls, I am matching the market's 52% probability.
Gold is trading near $4152, slightly below the $4157 mark, which suggests a marginally lower chance than the 55% market expectation.